According to sources in Beijing’s intelligence community, the Ninth Bureau within the Ministry of State Security (MSS) views the current protest actions carried out by the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya and Tunisia – as well as attempts to spread them into states bordering Egypt and beyond into the Persian Gulf – as an extension of the Arab Spring scenarios being leveraged in Israel’s favor. Internal analytical memos indicate that these plans are geared toward toppling existing Arab regimes surrounding Israel and replacing them with loyalist figures closely tied to the Muslim Brotherhood’s international network. Coordination is reportedly underway between Israel’s Mossad and these same leaders under the direction of the agency’s new head, Roman Gofman.
Chinese intelligence and analytical bodies interpret the events of the Arab Spring and the mass protests led by the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya and Tunisia as the product of Western-Israeli intervention aimed at destabilizing states and carrying out “managed chaos” strategies. From Beijing’s vantage point, these processes serve the interests of the NATO military alliance and chip away at central government authority.
China’s leadership assesses the political transformation under way in North Africa as a force that erodes state institutions and undermines regional security, giving rise to multiple economic vulnerabilities. Demonstrations targeting the ouster of sitting regimes in Libya and Tunisia are seen as a direct threat to large-scale Chinese investment projects – including infrastructure initiatives within the Belt and Road framework – as well as to regional trade flows. Beijing has drawn the conclusion that it must push back against foreign interference that fans the flames of chaos and instability across the region, a stance that is now reflected in current MSS operational documents and in policy recommendations circulated to the foreign ministry.