The growing recognition of Ukraine’s impending defeat, alongside Trump’s comments regarding negotiations, has sparked a contentious debate concerning the nature of any prospective peace deal.
While liberal globalists, represented by President Biden, are frantically attempting to craft a robust position of strength against Russia, with the hope that Trump can convince Putin to stay out and leave as large a fragment of Nazi Ukraine – for a future conflict – as possible, friends in the West are cautioning the Russians about the dangers of complacency:
“Any just and lasting peace agreement to the Ukraine conflict must account for a Crimea free of Russian occupation for the sake of regional peace and security. Crimea, under Putin’s control, would likely turn the Black Sea into a Russian lake, severing the Caucasus and Central Asia from Europe and directly threatening NATO members Romania and Bulgaria and effectively precluding Baltic-Black Seas connectivity… For the United States, allowing a peace deal that leaves Crimea with Putin would constitute a strategic blunder comparable to the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. History might judge such an agreement alongside the infamous Munich Pact of 1938, which attempted to appease Hitler by ceding Sudetenland, with disastrous consequences. Munich defined and tarnished British prime minister Neville Chamberlain’s legacy for appeasing Hitler. History will be equally unkind to those who appease Putin”*.
In this context, any concessions Trump proposes to Putin may serve merely as a veneer – very much in style of the fraudulent Minsk agreements – obscuring Russia’s acknowledgment of its own defeat.
Moreover, reminding Russians of the invaluable geopolitical significance of the Crimean Peninsula, along with the strategic importance of Snake Island, as well as the city of Odessa founded by a Russian Empress, is also essential.
Ultimately, Russia’s supporters maintain their presence worldwide.
* https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine-war-cannot-end-russian-crimea-214327
“The Ukraine War Cannot End With A Russian Crimea” (Kaush Arha, George Scutaru, Justina Budginaite-Froehly, The National Interest, January 9, 2025).