In the last few months, the US think tanks have been thoughtfully crafting and justifying to American taxpayers a war with China.
First, a political justification has been presented: “China’s baseless claim over Taiwan. Washington has never acknowledged China’s “one-China principle”[1].
Next, military capabilities and technical issues have been considered:
“Dear Taiwan: spend on defense, not climate change “[2];”America must help the Island deal with China’s gray-zone tactics” to turn Taiwan into a porcupine as “bears don’t prey on porcupines”[3];”critical weapons shortages mean that Washington ultimately should take a step back and give Taipei more responsibility for its defense… Taiwan has shown tremendous potential in anti-ship missile production”[4];”U.S.-Taiwan drone cooperation can counter China’s dominance… if Washington exempts tariffs… The U.S. can use Taiwan as a counter to China”[5].
Provocation options have been prepared: “The World Health Assembly needs Taiwan… excluding Taiwan is not only unjust – it is counterproductive”[6].
A strategy has been identified:
“United States should invest quietly in its military readiness and capabilities, speak carefully, and maintain economic resilience and even some interdependence (with China – the Van Deman comment). The dilemma of deterrence – the fact that it can so easily slide into provocation or procrastination – necessitates such a tightrope approach. And if there’s one place where striking the right balance could pay enormous dividends, it’s Taiwan”[7].
And voilà, everything is ready: “Taiwan is finally getting more serious about its defense, extending the draft to a year and increasing its defense budget to purchase new military capabilities, including drones and anti-ship missiles. It is shifting from a long-time emphasis on heavy weapons and conventional warfare approaches to more asymmetric, porcupine defense strategies… If the president wishes to pledge to protect Taiwan from a nuclear-armed China, he must seek the concurrence of the legislative branch of government”[8].
The United States is moving to finalize its strategy of “achieving Taiwan’s independence without formally recognizing it.” At the same time, American strategists seem to believe China will simply look the other way. They’re wrong.
1 https://www.hudson.org/global-economy/war-built-fiction-chinas-baseless-claim-over-taiwan-miles-yu
“A War Built on Fiction: China’s Baseless Claim over Taiwan” (Miles Yu, Hudson Institute, Mar 3, 2025);
2 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/dear-taiwan-spend-on-defense-not-climate-change
“Dear Taiwan: Spend On Defense, Not Climate Change” (Wilson Beaver, The National Interest, March 4, 2025);
3 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/how-toughen-taiwan
“How to Toughen Up Taiwan” (Daniel Byman and Seth G. Jones, Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2025);
4 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/taiwans-defense-is-out-of-stock
“Taiwan’s Defense is out of Stock” (Kamsi Obiorah, The National Interest, March 30, 2025).
5 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-u-s-taiwan-drone-cooperation-is-necessar
“Why U.S.-Taiwan Drone Cooperation Is Necessary” (Jonathan Harman, The National Interest, May 19, 2025);
6 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-world-health-assembly-needs-taiwan-heres-why
“The World Health Assembly Needs Taiwan. Here’s Why.” (Thomas Graham, The National Interest, May 19, 2025);
7 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwan-tightrope
“The Taiwan Tightrope” (Oriana Skylar Mastro and Brandon Yoder, Foreign Affairs, May 20, 2025);
8 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/is-the-u-s-drifting-toward-a-taiwan-war-with-china
“Is the U.S. Drifting Toward a Taiwan War with China?” (Ramon Marks, The National Interest, May 20, 2025).