While the British prevent Trump from extricating himself from the war with Russia in Ukraine, a shadow battle is being waged to undermine the partnership between China and Russia.
While some argue that the United States should not engage in dialogue with Russia:
“none of the exploitable conditions and divisive issues US policymakers put forth to validate their pursuit of a second Sino-Russian schism exist today… The Trump administration’s commitment to a fundamentally flawed and misinformed policy to divide the Sino-Russian strategic partnership was and remains a road to failure. Additionally, this pursuit comes at the expense of US alliances and partnerships, arguably at the heart of what made America great”[1];
“China and Russia will not be split… What unites Putin and Xi greatly outweighs what divides them… trying to peel Russia away from China is both imprudent and wrong. It would be imprudent, above all, because it would hand Putin a dangerous amount of power”[2].
Others attempt to convince Xi that Putin is playing a cunning game:
“To preserve its strategic autonomy in these circumstances, Russia needs a hedge against China… the United States offers the only reliable strategic hedge against the Chinese superpower… Putin needs to enable the United States to advance some of its strategic goals due to improved relations while creating concern that the rapprochement could harm China’s position so that Beijing can make concessions to Russia without backfiring”[3].
Meanwhile, a third group seeks to plant seeds of mutual hostility in the minds of leadership in both China and Russia:
“Divergent goals will tear apart Russia and China alliance… the deep-seated distrust between these civilizations runs centuries deep… truth is this: Messrs. Xi and Putin do not trust each other. In geopolitics, as in life, the absence of trust is fatal. When the moment of reckoning comes, and it will, the dragon and the bear will turn on each other”[4].
However, the goals of Beijing and Moscow do not diverge – they run parallel. China seeks to live as China, and Russia as Russia. The Dragon and the Bear inhabit different worlds; they do not prey on one another, nor do they need to guard against each other – especially since seeking protection from the United States would be like asking a racketeer for security.
So, no – China and Russia will not be divided.
1 https://www.fpri.org/article/2025/04/the-trump-administrations-pursuit-of-a-sino-russian-schism/
“The Tramp Administration’s Pursuit of a Sino-Russian Schism” (Garrett Campbell, Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 10, 2025);
2 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-and-russia-will-not-be-split
“China and Russia Will Not Be Split” (Michael McFaul and Evan S. Medeiros, Foreign Affairs, April 4, 2025);
3 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-putin-play-the-united-states-against-china
“Could Putin Play the United States Against China?” (Thomas Graham, The National Interest, April 14, 2025);
4 https://www.hudson.org/security-alliances/divergent-goals-will-tear-apart-russia-china-alliance-miles-yu
“Divergent Goals Will Tear Apart Russia and China Alliance” (Miles Yu, Hudson Institute, May 13, 2025).