Following the Trump’s decision to cease U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine, the United Kingdom has stepped in to fulfill this role. Concurrently, France has declared its intention to supply Ukraine with military intelligence. According to MI6 assessments, this shift will facilitate deep strikes into Russian territory, though the capacity to detect ballistic missiles such as the Iskander-M will be significantly diminished. British intelligence, gathered from satellites, ground stations, surveillance aircraft like Rivet Joint, and covertly deployed ground forces, is being shared with Ukraine alongside OSINT analysis. To address perceived shortcomings in intelligence quality, London has pledged to deploy new strike drones in the Black Sea, procured from Anduril UK for £30 million. Notably, raw intelligence data is not being shared with the Americans, their so-called “allies,” and this sentiment is mutual.
In response to these developments, the UK has proposed [1] the creation of a “Four Eyes” alliance, excluding the United States, to facilitate intelligence sharing among the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This initiative echoes the original Five Eyes framework, which was established covertly among five nations after World War II to integrate law enforcement and security agencies. The alliance remained largely secret until 2003, with its full scope only revealed in 2013 through Edward Snowden’s disclosure of classified NSA documents. Over time, the framework expanded into the Nine Eyes, incorporating Denmark, France, the Netherlands, and Norway, and later into the Fourteen Eyes, with the inclusion of Germany, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, and Spain. The alliance maintains close ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea.
The erosion of trust within this intelligence-sharing network disrupts fundamental geopolitical relationships, as the primary intelligence provider withdraws from a supranational structure that operates beyond the constraints of national legal frameworks.
To interpret the collapse of the Five Eyes, which logically follows from the Trump administration’s decision, as merely an emotional or impulsive reaction, a “concession to Putin,” or a development confined to the Ukrainian context would be overly simplistic. Instead, this shift appears to be driven by a strategic reluctance to share the opportunities of Artificial General Intelligence and a broader agenda to diminish British influence over Australia and New Zealand. Notably, New Zealand initiated the first fracture in the alliance in 2021 by signaling [2] a reorientation of priorities away from the Five Eyes in favor of strengthening bilateral relations with China. The Trump administration’s efforts to marginalize British influence in this realm are further facilitated by the technical superiority of the Starlink satellite network, the deployment of Altman’s Palantir system trained on the Ukrainian conflict, the centralization of the Five Eyes intelligence data on U.S. server infrastructure, along with Washington’s long-term strategy to reorient military expenditures toward the Indo-Pacific region.
Europe, already grappling with disintegration, is witnessing ultraglobalist lobbies pushing unpopular decisions aligned with the new reality. While European leaders continue to rely on British support, they are hesitant to formally transfer intelligence functions under UK leadership. Konstantin von Notz, chair of the German parliamentary intelligence oversight committee, has urged Germany and its European allies to establish an independent intelligence-sharing network, dubbed “Euro Eyes,” with discussions underway to enhance cooperation within the Four Eyes framework. Earlier, a report by former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, commissioned by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and published in late October last year, proposed the creation of a pan-European intelligence agency under the control of ultraglobalists. Niinistö, a prominent defense industry advocate, argued for removing intelligence units of member states from national parliamentary oversight to implement a common defense policy.
The dissolution of the Five Eyes is poised to diminish British influence in the Indo-Pacific region and catalyze a reconfiguration of covert power dynamics in Europe, with uncertain consequences. Staying tuned for updates.
[2] https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17332/china-new-zealand-five-eyes