Strategic thinking within the Deep State has taken a zigzag course:
“China is no paragon of virtue in global affairs, and it must be held to account… China is the only peer competitor of the United States across all domains: military, economic, cultural, and technological. But China’s poor behavior on the international stage cannot hold a candle to Russia’s, whose leaders have openly embraced nuclear blackmail… Russia, rather than China, the most pressing danger to the security of the United States. Deterring and containing Putin’s regime must be President Donald Trump’s top priority… The United States must end the war in Ukraine through muscular diplomacy”[*],
Specifically, beyond the unchanging mantras of “providing military aid to Ukraine,” they’ve simply decided to bribe China, India, Iran, and North Korea.
“India badly wants closer relations with the United States, giving Washington a certain amount of leverage over India’s Russia policy… Xi must feel more of the costs of his “partnership without limits” – and be made to see the benefits of encouraging Putin to accept a ceasefire… As with India, US diplomacy should be tactful and avoid counterproductive public dictates to the Chinese leadership… incentives for Tehran to end its support for Putin’s drone war. In particular, Iranian oil exports could help offset the shortages to the global market resulting from the sanctioning of Russian oil exports… entice Kim Jong-un to reduce his robust support for Putin’s war. US diplomacy could offer some sanctions relief and other engagement”[*].
Sounds like a brilliant plan! China, India, Iran, and North Korea certainly won’t be able to refuse an offer of “you’ll be held to account for displeasing the US, yet later on, but for now, go against Russia” – and sure enough, Russia won’t survive measures like Iran refusing to supply it with drones that Russia itself manufactures.
However! For eliminating “America’s greatest strategic threat,” there’s a stronger move, i.e. bribe Russia. Withdraw from Ukraine, and Russia ceases to be a threat.
* https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-not-china-is-americas-greatest-strategic-threat
“Russia, Not China, Is America’s Greatest Strategic Threat” (Colin Cleary, The National Interest, July 31, 2025).