{"id":2094,"date":"2025-05-21T08:02:56","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T13:02:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vandeman.org\/ru\/?p=2094"},"modified":"2025-05-21T11:55:40","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T16:55:40","slug":"ssha-perehodim-iz-ukrainy-v-tajvan-glavnyj-vrag-kitaj","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vandeman.org\/en\/ssha-perehodim-iz-ukrainy-v-tajvan-glavnyj-vrag-kitaj\/","title":{"rendered":"US Strategy: Shifting Focus from Ukraine to Taiwan with China as Key Foe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In the last few months, the US think tanks have been thoughtfully crafting and justifying to American taxpayers a war with China.<\/p>\n<p>First, a political justification has been presented: &#8220;China\u2019s baseless claim over Taiwan. Washington has never acknowledged China\u2019s &#8220;one-China principle&#8221;[1].<\/p>\n<p>Next, military capabilities and technical issues have been considered:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Dear Taiwan: spend on defense, not climate change &#8220;[2];&#8221;America must help the Island deal with China\u2019s gray-zone tactics&#8221; to turn Taiwan into a porcupine as &#8220;bears don\u2019t prey on porcupines&#8221;[3];&#8221;critical weapons shortages mean that Washington ultimately should take a step back and give Taipei more responsibility for its defense&#8230; Taiwan has shown tremendous potential in anti-ship missile production&#8221;[4];&#8221;U.S.-Taiwan drone cooperation can counter China\u2019s dominance&#8230; if Washington exempts tariffs&#8230; The U.S. can use Taiwan as a counter to China&#8221;[5].<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Provocation options have been prepared: &#8220;The World Health Assembly needs Taiwan&#8230; excluding Taiwan is not only unjust &#8211; it is counterproductive&#8221;[6].<\/p>\n<p>A strategy has been identified:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;United States should invest quietly in its military readiness and capabilities, speak carefully, and maintain economic resilience and even some interdependence (with China &#8211; the Van Deman comment). The dilemma of deterrence &#8211; the fact that it can so easily slide into provocation or procrastination &#8211; necessitates such a tightrope approach. And if there\u2019s one place where striking the right balance could pay enormous dividends, it\u2019s Taiwan&#8221;[7].<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And voil\u00e0, everything is ready: &#8220;Taiwan is finally getting more serious about its defense, extending the draft to a year and increasing its defense budget to purchase new military capabilities, including drones and anti-ship missiles. It is shifting from a long-time emphasis on heavy weapons and conventional warfare approaches to more asymmetric, porcupine defense strategies&#8230; If the president wishes to pledge to protect Taiwan from a nuclear-armed China, he must seek the concurrence of the legislative branch of government&#8221;[8].<\/p>\n<p><strong>The United States is moving to finalize its strategy of &#8220;achieving Taiwan\u2019s independence without formally recognizing it.&#8221; At the same time, American strategists seem to believe China will simply look the other way. They\u2019re wrong.<\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><em>1 https:\/\/www.hudson.org\/global-economy\/war-built-fiction-chinas-baseless-claim-over-taiwan-miles-yu<\/em><br \/><em>&#8220;A War Built on Fiction: China\u2019s Baseless Claim over Taiwan&#8221; (Miles Yu, Hudson Institute, Mar 3, 2025);<\/em><br \/><em>2 https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/dear-taiwan-spend-on-defense-not-climate-change<\/em><br \/><em>&#8220;Dear Taiwan: Spend On Defense, Not Climate Change&#8221; (Wilson Beaver, The National Interest, March 4, 2025);<\/em><br \/><em>3 https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/united-states\/how-toughen-taiwan<\/em><br \/><em>&#8220;How to Toughen Up Taiwan&#8221; (Daniel Byman and Seth G. Jones, Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2025);<\/em><br \/><em>4 https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/buzz\/taiwans-defense-is-out-of-stock<\/em><br \/><em>&#8220;Taiwan\u2019s Defense is out of Stock&#8221; (Kamsi Obiorah, The National Interest, March 30, 2025).<\/em><br \/><em>5 https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/why-u-s-taiwan-drone-cooperation-is-necessar<\/em><br \/><em>&#8220;Why U.S.-Taiwan Drone Cooperation Is Necessary&#8221; (Jonathan Harman, The National Interest, May 19, 2025);<\/em><br \/><em>6 https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/the-world-health-assembly-needs-taiwan-heres-why<\/em><br \/><em>&#8220;The World Health Assembly Needs Taiwan. Here\u2019s Why.&#8221; (Thomas Graham, The National Interest, May 19, 2025);<\/em><br \/><em>7 https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/taiwan\/taiwan-tightrope<\/em><br \/><em>&#8220;The Taiwan Tightrope&#8221; (Oriana Skylar Mastro and Brandon Yoder, Foreign Affairs, May 20, 2025);<\/em><br \/><em>8 https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/is-the-u-s-drifting-toward-a-taiwan-war-with-china<\/em><br \/><em>&#8220;Is the U.S. Drifting Toward a Taiwan War with China?&#8221; (Ramon Marks, The National Interest, May 20, 2025).<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the last few months, the US think tanks have been thoughtfully crafting and justifying to American taxpayers a war with China. First, a political justification has been presented: &#8220;China\u2019s baseless claim over Taiwan. Washington has never acknowledged China\u2019s &#8220;one-China principle&#8221;[1]. Next, military capabilities and technical issues have been considered: &#8220;Dear Taiwan: spend on defense, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[192],"tags":[79,405,26,60,272,481,33],"class_list":["post-2094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-blog","tag-kitaj-2","tag-putin","tag-rossija","tag-ssha","tag-tajvan","tag-tramp","tag-ukraina"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Strategy: Shifting Focus from Ukraine to Taiwan with China as Key Foe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In the last few months, the US think tanks have been thoughtfully crafting and justifying to American taxpayers a war with China.First, a political justification has been presented: &quot;China\u2019s baseless claim over Taiwan. 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